Bitcoin may be entering another prolonged consolidation phase, with short-term indicators indicating a more pessimistic outlook, which contrasts with the general sentiment in the crypto community, as noted by the head of research at 10x Research.
While numerous crypto analysts anticipate new Bitcoin
BTCUSD
all-time highs by June, Markus Thielen expressed skepticism in an April 14 market report, highlighting that on-chain data suggests “more of a bear market environment than a bullish one.”
Short-term indicators signal potential market top
Thielen noted that the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator — which compares a specific closing price to a range of prices over a set period to gauge momentum — exhibits patterns “more characteristic of a market top or late-cycle phase rather than the beginning of a new bull run.”
“Consequently, short-term signals are misaligned with longer-term indicators, underlining the disparity in market outlook,” Thielen remarked.
“Bitcoin is no longer a purely ‘Long-Only’ retail-driven market,” he stated, adding that it now “requires a more sophisticated, finance-oriented approach.”
“The Bitcoin rally seen in the past year has not been propelled by traditional ‘crypto-bro’ speculation, but rather by long-term holders seeking diversification and employing a buy-and-hold strategy,” Thielen explained.
In the last 12 months, Bitcoin has increased by 32.80% and is currently trading around $83,810, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin price action may echo 2024 pattern
Thielen reiterated his viewpoint that Bitcoin could enter an extended consolidation phase, similar to what occurred in 2024.
“Despite our cautious optimism, we perceive Bitcoin as trading within a broad range of $73,000 to $94,000, with a slight upward trend,” he said.
In March 2024, Bitcoin achieved its then-record high of $73,679 before undergoing a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a range of about $20,000 until the US elections were won by Donald Trump in November.
Many crypto analysts are anticipating June as the month when Bitcoin might eclipse its current all-time high of $109,000, which it reached in January just prior to Trump’s inauguration.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten mentioned to Cointelegraph in early March that “there’s more than a 50% chance we will see all-time highs before the end of June this year.”
In agreement, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson and Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts also identified June as a potential timeframe for Bitcoin to achieve a new high.
“It is entirely feasible for Bitcoin to attain a new all-time high before June,” Peterson noted.
Meanwhile, Coutts stated, “The market might be underestimating how swiftly Bitcoin could surge – possibly reaching new all-time highs before the conclusion of Q2.”
This article is not intended as investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should perform their own due diligence when making decisions.
