- Betting markets indicate that bitcoin may have nearly hit its peak in 2025.
- Speculators anticipate the coin will reach $110,000 this year, marginally surpassing its all-time high from January.
- Nevertheless, optimists are still projecting that the leading cryptocurrency could soar to staggering levels this year.
Crypto advocates remain unfazed by the significant volatility of the year, while betting markets suggest strong possibilities that the token has peaked in 2025.
While betting markets suggest that bitcoin could slightly surpass its January record of around $109,000, bettors do not foresee much room for growth beyond this point. Furthermore, if the token breaks new highs, speculators are bracing for a more substantial downturn.
A Polymarket bet with trading volume exceeding $5 million suggests a 61% chance that the leading token will reach $110,000 by 2025, a figure just slightly above its previous high.
However, expectations diminish for higher prices. The likelihood of bitcoin reaching $150,000 or $200,000 this year stands at 29% and 14%, respectively, on the betting platform.
The majority of Polymarket participants predict bitcoin will drop to roughly $70,000. Bettors on the Kalshi exchange hold an even bleaker outlook, suggesting the token might fall to around $64,000, marking its lowest point since last October.
The negativity extends beyond bitcoin. Polymarket speculators forecast that ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, will hit $1,500 this year, representing a decrease of about 24% from its price on Friday.
Since bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,026 in January, enthusiasm has dwindled significantly due to a series of economic uncertainties impacting risk assets.
Discussions about a potential recession and persistent inflation have ignited a correction in digital assets. Bitcoin fell beneath $80,000 last week, while the CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index slipped into “extreme fear” territory.
Other influences, including a substantial crypto hacking incident and disruptions in memecoins, have also contributed to the waning sentiment.
The bulls remain steadfast
The bulls are undeterred.
“Crypto skeptics may wince at every turn, but the timeline is hard to overlook. We are entering a new era that continues to signal bullish trends,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a note dated March 3. “We still believe Bitcoin is on track to reach $200K.”
This sentiment is not exclusive to the investment firm, which noted that industry sentiment — in contrast to the market’s — is at an all-time high.
During President Donald Trump’s administration, strict crypto regulations are easing, and more favorable policies are beginning to surface — albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated.
For similar reasons, others have reiterated their optimistic forecasts in the recent weeks. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick is even more convinced that bitcoin will achieve $200,000 by year-end, as macroeconomic factors may compel rate cuts, which would be positive for bitcoin.
21Shares strategists foresee a similar outcome, predicting that lower interest rates will enhance crypto liquidity and propel bitcoin to $150,000.
Given the critical nature of Fed policies, crypto investors should monitor forthcoming inflation data to ascertain when momentum might return, advised Amberdata’s head of research Mike Marshall.
Meanwhile, some foresee much higher bitcoin figures, with Strategy founder and bitcoin enthusiast Michael Saylor predicting a year-end price of $444,000.
“To undermine long-term convictions, one would need more than short-term price fluctuations; genuine structural setbacks like halted ETF flows, regulatory confusion, or a collapse in on-chain fundamentals would be necessary. As of now, none of this has materialized,” remarked Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, to BI.
