A recent report by Fidelity Digital Assets raised the question of whether Bitcoin’s price has already experienced its cyclical “blow-off top” or if BTC (BTC) is just about to enter another “acceleration phase.”
According to Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright, Bitcoin’s acceleration phases are defined by “high volatility and high profit,” similar to the price movements observed when BTC surged past $20,000 in December 2020.
Despite Bitcoin’s year-to-date return reflecting an 11.4% loss, and a nearly 25% drop from its all-time high, Wainwright noted that the performance following the recent post-acceleration phase matches BTC’s average drawdowns in relation to previous market cycles.
Historical downturns in Bitcoin following acceleration phases. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research
Wainwright suggests that Bitcoin remains in an acceleration phase, but is nearing the end of the cycle, noting that March 3 marked day 232 of this period. Historically, previous peaks have lasted slightly longer before entering a corrective phase.
“The acceleration phases of 2010 – 2011, 2015, and 2017 reached their peaks on days 244, 261, and 280, respectively, indicating a somewhat extended phase each time.”
Related: MARA Holdings plans a massive $2B stock offering to acquire more Bitcoin
Is a new parabolic rally on the horizon for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s price has remained under $100,000 since February 21, with much of the momentum and positive sentiment from the “Trump trade” fading, compounded by tariff war-induced volatility and concerns regarding a potential recession in the US.
Despite these challenges and their negative effects on daily Bitcoin prices, large entities continue to increase their BTC holdings.
On March 31, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor announced the company’s acquisition of 22,048 BTC ($1.92 billion) at an average price of $86,969 per Bitcoin. Similarly, Bitcoin miner MARA disclosed plans to sell up to $2 billion in stock to periodically acquire more BTC.
Following the trend set by larger-cap companies, Japanese firm Metaplanet issued 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) in bonds on March 31 to purchase additional Bitcoin, and the biggest news of March came from GameStop, which announced a $1.3 billion convertible notes offering, part of which could be allocated to buying Bitcoin.
The recent acquisitions and intentions to buy from various international and US-based publicly traded companies reflect a price-agnostic strategy in accumulating BTC as a reserve asset, underscoring positive future price expectations among institutional investors.
While assessing the impact of institutional investments on Bitcoin’s price remains complex, Wainwright suggested monitoring the number of days in a rolling 60-day period that the cryptocurrency reaches a new all-time high. He shared the following chart, stating:
“Bitcoin has generally witnessed two significant surges during prior Acceleration Phases, with the first of this cycle following the election. If a new all-time high approaches, it will likely start from a base near $110,000.”
The number of all-time high days for Bitcoin (rolling 60 days). Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities entail risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence before making any decisions.
