Per a recent post from CryptoQuant Quicktake, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a consistent price increase from November 2024 to February 2025, yet the sentiment within the cryptocurrency’s futures market has not mirrored this positive trend.
Bitcoin Futures Sentiment Index Suggests Caution
Bitcoin’s value rose from about $74,000 in November 2024 to a high of $101,000 by early February 2025. Nevertheless, following tariff announcements from US President Donald Trump, risk-on assets—including BTC—have faced a notable decline.
After touching a potential local bottom of $74,508 on April 6, the leading cryptocurrency has recouped some of its recent losses. At present, the premier digital asset is trading in the mid $80,000 range.
In spite of this recovery, BTC’s futures sentiment has shown a consistent decline since February. Even as the price hovers near local highs, the sentiment in the futures market has significantly softened.
CryptoQuant contributor abramchart pointed out this divergence, suggesting it may signify a growing caution or profit-taking behavior amid the ongoing bullish momentum. The analyst remarked:
This reflects a decline in interest or a rise in fear within the futures market, potentially due to macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory issues, or anticipated corrections.
An examination of the BTC futures sentiment index reveals a resistance zone around 0.8 and a support level near 0.2. Currently, the index sits around 0.4, indicating a predominantly bearish sentiment throughout the futures markets.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s average price has consistently decreased from its early 2025 highs, now fluctuating between $70,000 and $80,000, indicating potential market indecisiveness amid escalating tariff conflicts.
According to abramchart, if the futures sentiment remains low, BTC might encounter prolonged price consolidation or even downward pressure in the near future. However, any emerging bullish catalyst could swiftly alter sentiment and restore upward momentum.
Is BTC Approaching a Momentum Shift?
Several analysts contend that Bitcoin may be on the brink of a breakout. Following a period of consolidation in the mid-$80,000s, on-chain metrics imply that BTC may be undervalued at its current price points. Indicators such as BTC exchange reserves and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio bolster this perspective.
Furthermore, momentum indicators, such as Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index, have started breaking out of a long-established downward trendline—fostering optimism for a possible bullish rally back towards $100,000.
Nevertheless, multiple risks persist. The recent emergence of a ‘death cross’ on BTC’s price chart, coupled with ongoing macroeconomic concerns regarding trade tariffs, might continue to pressure market sentiment. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $83,917, reflecting a 1.8% decrease over the past 24 hours.
