The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could return to the $100,000 mark sooner than many investors anticipate if the initial signs of its separation from the US stock market and gold persist.
Source: Cory Bates / X
Emerging Relationship: “Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows”
Bitcoin has seemingly disregarded the market anxieties triggered by US President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement on April 2.
Despite an initial decline of over 3% to about $82,500, BTC later rallied approximately 4.5%, surpassing $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 experienced a sharp drop of 10.65% this week, while gold—after achieving a peak of $3,167 on April 3—experienced a decline of 4.8%.
BTC/USD compared to gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
This new divergence is kindling the narrative that “gold leads Bitcoin,” taking inspiration from price trends between late 2018 and mid-2019 to forecast a potential price surge toward $100,000.
During that time, gold embarked on a steady rise, climbing almost 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained relatively stagnant. Shortly after, Bitcoin broke out, soaring over 170% in early 2019 and then skyrocketing another 344% by late 2020.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
“Reclaiming $100k would indicate a transition from gold to BTC,” stated market analyst MacroScope, adding:
“Similar to prior cycles, this would pave the way for a new phase of exceptional BTC performance compared to gold and other assets.”
This outlook aligns with the views of Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, predicting that Bitcoin may increase by tenfold or more compared to gold, drawing parallels to previous trends.
Source: Mike Alfred / X
Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Suggests Potential Bull Trap
Based on a bearish fractal developing in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio, Bitcoin could be eyeing a drop to around $65,000.
The BTC/XAU ratio is currently displaying a recognizable pattern last observed in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.
BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView
BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and is again testing the red 50-EMA for support.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking sharply lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). Should history repeat, BTC/XAU could be heading for a more profound correction, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen.
Notably, these breakdown cycles have previously coincided with declines in Bitcoin’s dollar valuation, as illustrated below.
BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView
If the fractal plays out, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with further selloffs hinting at declines below $20,000, corresponding with the 200-2W EMA.
Conversely, a rebound from the BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA may negate the bearish fractal scenario.
Impact of a US Recession on Bitcoin’s Bullish Prospects
From a fundamental standpoint, Bitcoin’s price outlook seems tilted to the downside.
Concerns are mounting that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could escalate into a comprehensive trade war and trigger a US recession. Generally, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during periods of economic contraction.
Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks suffer $3.5T loss amid Trump tariff war and Fed’s warning of ‘higher inflation’
Further weighing on sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations of imminent interest rate cuts.
Powell indicated that progress on inflation remains inconsistent, implying a prolonged high-rate environment that might add pressure to Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Nevertheless, the majority of bond traders anticipate three consecutive rate cuts before the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading carry risks, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
