Crypto trading platforms in the US are regaining their influence on Bitcoin’s (BTC) token transfer volumes, which could potentially lead to a rally in the latter half of 2025.
Axel Adler Jr, a Bitcoin researcher, noted that the “US vs. offshore ratio,” which tracks token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, showed that US exchanges’ dominance has decreased since BTC peaked in January.
The chart indicates a reversal in trend, suggesting that BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are rising once more, echoing earlier bull market rallies.
A significant technical indicator here is the crossover of the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) above the 365-day SMA, which has historically signaled major price rallies. For instance, this occurred at a price of $60,000, after which Bitcoin initiated a rally within just one week. This pattern hints at a potential surge in price in the upcoming weeks.
Additionally, on-chain analyst Boris Vest pointed out that Bitcoin remains undervalued. In a brief update on CryptoQuant, he explained that Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to levels not seen since 2018, with just 2.43 million BTC on exchanges, compared to 3.4 million in 2021, reflecting long-term holding behavior and a decrease in supply.
The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) stands at 14.3, indicating there is still significant purchasing power available, as this ratio is below levels observed in 2021. Boris stated,
“Since the SSR hasn’t yet reached 2021 levels, it indicates that Bitcoin is still undervalued. This suggests that the bull market and buying pressure are likely to persist.”
Related: Why is Bitcoin price down today?
Bitcoin reverses crucial monthly indicator, paving the way to $90K
Market analyst Dom emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent breakout from a multi-month downtrend coincides with BTC flipping the monthly VWAP into support for the first time since January.
The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a technical metric that averages the price based on trading volume. Traders utilize VWAP to evaluate trend changes, identify support or resistance levels, and determine if an asset is overbought or oversold.
Dom remarked,
“The bulls have successfully maintained both of these levels for 4 days now, which we haven’t seen in months. If we move above yesterday’s high, I believe BTC could reach near 90k.”
Nonetheless, Alphractal founder João Wedson expressed caution with Bitcoin around $86,000. He suggested that it would be prudent to wait for a pullback if Bitcoin breaks this level, or risk falling under bearish control. This sentiment aligns with Alphractal’s analysis pinpointing $86,300 as a critical resistance area that could potentially turn into a bull trap.
Related: Bitcoin bulls ‘coming back’ as key metric on Binance flips to neutral
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers are encouraged to do their own research before proceeding.
