A significant Bitcoin (BTC) indicator has suggested a possible shift in its dynamics, as the long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) exceeded $18 billion for the first time since September 2024. Insights from CryptoQuant reveal that this group has shown strong accumulation patterns, which previously indicated the bottom for BTC in Q3 2024.
The LTH realized cap reflects the cost basis of BTC investors who have held their assets for 155 days or more. A notable rise in this metric signifies that long-term holders are likely in an accumulation phase, aligning with bullish market behavior.
Bitcoin LTH net position realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant
The chart demonstrates that spikes in this metric have historically preceded bullish rallies. Most recently, the LTH realized cap hit $18 billion on September 8, 2024, following which Bitcoin achieved a 100% return over the subsequent months.
Another critical factor that aligns the current market setup with September 2024 is the notable decline in open interest. Bitcoin’s open interest reached an all-time high of $39 billion in July but fell by 25% by September. Similarly, BTC’s open interest dropped 28% from December 18 to April 8.
Bitcoin open interest. Source: CoinGlass
The simultaneous rise in LTH Realized Cap and a substantial leverage wipeout strongly indicates a potential Bitcoin price bottom. However, Bitcoin’s open interest has increased by nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, implying that the price movements following this uptick could provide clearer directional cues in the days ahead.
Related: Bitcoiners’ ‘bullish impulse’ on recession may be premature: 10x Research
Bitcoin establishes support at $79K
Following the establishment of a new yearly low at $74,500 between April 7 and April 9, BTC prices have surged nearly 10% over the past three days. According to data from Glassnode, credible support for BTC has formed around the $79,000 mark, with notable accumulation.
“Evaluating Cost Basis Distribution, Bitcoin has built significant support at $79K, with approximately 40K BTC accumulated there. It also effectively worked through the $82.08K cluster (around 51K BTC).”
Bitcoin heatmap based on cost basis distribution. Source: X.com
The heatmap from April 6 to April 11 illustrates investment accumulation trends among investors, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise beyond $81,000, driven by a 2.4% US CPI rate and President Trump’s 90-day tariff suspension, fostering a cautious optimism for a relief rally.
In addition, anonymous technical analyst Cold Blooded Shiller has noted a descending trendline for Bitcoin, as BTC price approaches a potential bullish breakout. The analyst remarked,
“I must admit, that’s looking very enticing for BTC.”
Bitcoin 1-day chart analysis by Cold Blooded Shiller. Source: X.com
Related: Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming ‘classic’ floor near $80K
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions carry risks, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
