A significant indicator for Bitcoin (BTC) has pointed towards a possible change in its market dynamics as the BTC long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) exceeded $18 billion for the first time since September 2024. According to data from CryptoQuant, this group has shown notable accumulation patterns, which previously indicated a bottom for BTC in Q3 2024.
The LTH realized cap represents the cost basis of Bitcoin investors who have held their assets for 155 days or longer. A marked rise in this figure suggests that long-term holders are currently in an accumulation phase, aligning with bullish market sentiment.
The chart depicts how increases in this metric have historically led to bullish rallies. The latest instance of the LTH realized cap hitting $18 billion on September 8, 2024, was followed by Bitcoin achieving 100% returns within a few months.
Another critical aspect supporting the current market setup akin to September 2024 is the noticeable decline in open interest. Bitcoin’s OI peaked at a historic $39 billion in July before dropping by 25% by September. In a comparable trend, Bitcoin’s open interest saw a 28% decrease between December 18 and April 8,
The simultaneous increase in the LTH Realized Cap and a reduction in leverage strongly indicates a potential Bitcoin price bottom. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s open interest has spiked nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, suggesting that subsequent price movements may provide clearer directional guidance in the upcoming days.
Related: Bitcoiners’ ‘bullish impulse’ on recession may be premature: 10x Research
Bitcoin strengthens support at $79K
After reaching a new yearly low of $74,500 between April 7 and April 9, BTC prices have climbed nearly 10% over the past three days. In reference to price levels under the $80,000 mark, Glassnode analytics indicated that BTC has established robust support at the $79,000 range. The data analytics platform noted in a post,
“Analyzing Cost Basis Distribution, Bitcoin has formed considerable support at $79K, with approximately 40K BTC accumulated there. Additionally, it has successfully navigated through the $82.08K cluster (~51K BTC).”
The April 6-11 heatmap illustrates supply distribution, revealing patterns of investor accumulation. This follows Bitcoin’s surge past $81,000, driven by a 2.4% US CPI rate and President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, with market sentiment reflecting cautious optimism for a relief rally.
In addition, anonymous technical analyst Cold Blooded Shiller observed a descending trendline for Bitcoin, with BTC currently testing a potential bullish breakout. The analyst commented,
“I must say, that looks very appealing for BTC.”
Related: Bollinger Bands creator states Bitcoin is forming a ‘classic’ floor near $80K
This article provides no investment advice or endorsements. All investment and trading activities carry risks; readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.
