The institutional cryptocurrency investment firm Bitwise has reaffirmed its optimistic Bitcoin price prediction for this year, even amidst rising global trade tensions.
“In December, Bitwise forecasted that Bitcoin would conclude the year at $200,000. I still believe that scenario is achievable,” stated Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan in a blog post dated April 9.
He indicated that the repercussions of US President Donald Trump’s global tariff initiatives could actually favor Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency sector, as his administration “seems to desire a weaker dollar, even at the cost of compromising its status as the world’s reserve currency.”
Hougan referenced an April 7 address by Steve Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who criticized the dollar’s reserve currency role for creating “persistent currency distortions” and “unsustainable trade deficits” that have “seriously undermined” US manufacturing.
According to Hougan, a declining dollar could have both immediate and long-lasting effects on Bitcoin.
In the near term, he remarked that historically, dollar weakness is associated with Bitcoin strength, pointing to the US Dollar Index (DXY) as evidence.
“When the dollar goes down, Bitcoin tends to go up,” Hougan said. “I anticipate that this trend will persist.”
BTC prices have typically soared when DXY has been at historical lows. Source: MacroMicro
The DXY, which evaluates the value of the US dollar against a collection of six major currencies, has seen a decline of more than 7% since the start of 2025, according to TradingView.
On a longer time frame, Hougan suggested that disruptions to the global reserve currency system present opportunities for alternative reserve assets, including Bitcoin and gold.
“Governments and corporations rely on the dollar for international trade primarily due to its stability. When that stability is questioned, they must seek alternatives.”
The Bitwise executive wrapped up by asserting that the world is transitioning from a singular reserve currency to a “more fragmented reserve system, where hard assets like Bitcoin and gold will have an increasingly prominent role.”
Earlier this week, VanEck reported that China and Russia are allegedly conducting some energy trades using Bitcoin as Trump’s trade conflict escalates.
On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension on nearly all of his previously declared “reciprocal tariffs,” maintaining a baseline 10% tariff on all nations except China, which was assigned a hefty 125% tariff.
Bitcoin will be the fastest horse
Crypto trader and analyst Will Clemente expressed on X that “Bitcoin will be the fastest horse” emerging from this market drawdown.
Related: Is it the best time to buy Bitcoin? Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explains why
“It purely reflects liquidity dynamics, and given the economic uncertainty and deglobalization, it actually benefits Bitcoin,” he added.
As of now, BTC has risen by 7.5% in the last 24 hours, reaching a price of $81,700. It has experienced a correction of approximately 32% from its all-time high on January 20, mirroring pullbacks seen in past bullish market cycles.
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