Current discussions in the market are heavily focused on recession risks and macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly with Bitcoin experiencing a decline of -20% from its peak. However, macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) argues that the overall economic landscape is not as bleak as many headlines imply, despite some data suggesting weaker growth might be on the horizon for early 2025.
“Doesn’t look very recessionary to me?” Tomas expressed in a recent post on X, reflecting the skepticism he has maintained for several months. He highlighted particular indicators that had declined since February but have recently shown signs of stabilization. His analysis of US growth nowcasts—which compile various real-time metrics of economic growth—indicates that they “fell throughout February but have now leveled off for three weeks.” He also pointed out the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which evaluates how actual economic data stacks up against consensus forecasts. Although the CESI had seen a downward trend since January, suggesting that data releases were missing expectations, it has stabilized in recent weeks.
“A falling CESI indicates that data is coming in below expectations, while a rising CESI shows data coming in above expectations,” Tomas clarified, stressing the importance of this index for market sentiment. This suggests that, despite markets becoming more defensive during early-year weaknesses, these indicators are no longer deteriorating at the same rapid pace as witnessed at the beginning of 2025.
Why Bitcoin Mirrors Summer 2024
Tomas then examined the similarities between the current situation and two significant historical events: the volatility of Summer 2024 and the downturn of late 2018. He pointed out that in both instances, global markets experienced a sharp drop due to what he referred to as “growth/recession scares,” compounded by various external pressures.
“For me, the two most comparable recent instances to today, concerning both price movement and macro conditions, are Summer 2024 and late 2018,” he stated. During Summer 2024, fears surrounding growth and a widespread unwinding of yen carry trades contributed to a 10% decline in equity markets. In late 2018, an escalating trade dispute following the initial Trump-era tariffs similarly triggered a 10% correction in equities, which eventually deepened into a further 15% drop.
At this time, equity markets have also seen around a 10% peak-to-trough decline, prompting Tomas to note distinct echoes of those past events. He highlighted that these parallels are evident in Bitcoin’s performance, which fell approximately 30% in Summer 2024 and 54% in late 2018—similar to the 30% drop it has experienced recently. He posed the question of what lies ahead: will the market mirror the relatively contained corrections of Summer 2024, or will it descend into a more severe and prolonged sell-off like that of late 2018?
“So which way?” Tomas inquired, pointing out the uncertainty facing both crypto assets and equities. His viewpoint leans towards anticipating a scenario more reflective of Summer 2024 than the tumultuous events of 2018. He explained, “I still believe that tariffs won’t be as damaging as many predict—I’ve maintained this stance for months,” a perspective he believes also accounts for the surprising resilience seen in risk assets lately. He indicated that “some recent indications may point toward this outcome, which might explain today’s rebound in risk assets,” though he refrained from claiming any definitive conclusions.
Tomas believes several factors strengthen the case that today’s environment parallels Summer 2024 more closely than late 2018. One factor is the recent easing of financial conditions, which have moderated after tightening earlier in the year. Another is the notable weakening of the US dollar, contrasting sharply with its rise during 2018 that intensified selling across global assets.
Additionally, Tomas mentioned that most leading indicators still favor ongoing business cycle expansion, a stance he feels is less indicative of the contractionary signals that unsettled investors nearly seven years prior. He also noted a generally favorable seasonal trend for US equity indices, which often rebound after a weak February and typically find stronger footing by mid-March. Lastly, tight credit spreads—remaining below the highs observed in August 2024—suggest stable credit markets are not currently signaling severe economic distress.
Beyond the macro signals, Tomas confessed to feeling weariness regarding the ongoing dialogues around economic policy catalysts. “Honestly, I’m quite bored with all the tariff discussions,” he shared, while reminding followers that April 2 is critical for clarity. “April 2nd, ‘tariff liberation day’ will likely play a significant role in shaping future developments,” he concluded.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $86,557.
