Project Eleven, a research firm focused on quantum computing, has initiated a competition to evaluate the current threat level that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin.
On April 16, Project Eleven announced a prize of 1 Bitcoin (BTC) for anyone who can unlock the most substantial portion of a Bitcoin key using a quantum computer within the upcoming year.
The objective of the “Q-Day Prize” is to gauge “how pressing the threat” of quantum is to Bitcoin and to explore quantum-resistant solutions to secure Bitcoin for the future.
“There are over 10 million addresses with exposed public keys. Quantum computing is advancing rapidly, yet nobody has thoroughly assessed this risk so far,” Project Eleven shared on X on April 16.
According to Project Eleven, over 6 million Bitcoin — approximately valued at $500 billion — may be compromised if quantum computers reach the capability to break elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) keys.
Participants can register individually or as teams, with the deadline for task completion set for April 5, 2026. The winner will take home 1 Bitcoin, currently valued at $84,100.
The challenge involves executing Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer to decode as many bits of a Bitcoin key as possible, serving as a proof-of-concept that this method could potentially scale to break a complete, 256-bit Bitcoin key once sufficient computing power is available.
“Our mission: to break the largest ECC key achievable using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer—without any classical shortcuts or hybrid approaches, purely leveraging quantum capability,” stated Project Eleven.
“You don’t even need to break a Bitcoin key; cracking a 3-bit key would be a major milestone,” they added.
Project Eleven highlighted that no ECC key in practical use has ever been successfully compromised, suggesting that the winner could “make history in cryptography.”
They also mentioned that various online platforms, including Amazon Web Services and IBM, provide access to quantum computing resources.
Related: Bitcoin’s quantum-resistant hard fork is inevitable — It’s the only chance to fix node incentives
Current projections indicate that approximately 2,000 logical qubits (error-corrected) would suffice to break a 256-bit ECC key, as stated by Project Eleven.
IBM’s Heron chip and Google’s Willow currently achieve 156 and 105 qubits respectively — a significant level of capability causing concern, according to Project Eleven, who believes a 2,000-qubit quantum system could be realized in the next ten years.
The quantum threat to Bitcoin is real, but Bitcoiners maintain there’s time
Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp recently articulated that the extent of concern the industry should have regarding quantum computing remains “unanswerable.”
“I consider it far from a crisis, but given that changing Bitcoin is complex, it’s wise to start serious discussions,” Lopp stated in a post on March 16.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino expressed in February that the concerns are valid, but he’s confident that quantum-resistant Bitcoin addresses will be realized well before any “significant threat” manifests.
Magazine: Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat: Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)
