The S&P 500 Index briefly showed volatility comparable to Bitcoin following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, highlighting the widespread panic and fear impacting traditional markets amid the ongoing trade war.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas informed his followers on X that the volatility of the S&P 500, as indicated by the “SPY US Equity Hist Vol” chart, climbed to 74 in early April, surpassing Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility level of 71.
Source: Eric Balchunas
This surge signifies a notable departure from the S&P 500’s historical volatility average, which rests below 20.
Conversely, Bitcoin has consistently exhibited extreme volatility since its inception.
BlackRock noted, “Bitcoin’s volatility remains elevated at levels 3.9 and 4.6 times greater than that of gold and global equities, respectively.”
While Bitcoin’s average volatility has reduced over time, it still experiences significantly greater price fluctuations than more established assets. Source: BlackRock
Stocks are facing crisis-level volatility due to Trump’s trade war, which imposed potential tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on imports from the US’s largest trading partners. Although Trump has now paused some tariffs for 90 days, the administration has raised duties on Chinese imports to at least 145%.
This volatility has also impacted other assets, particularly US Treasurys, which underwent substantial sell-offs this week, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond poised for its most significant increase since 2001.
Related: As Trump dampens Bitcoin, PMI provides insight on what’s next
Despite “macro relief,” Bitcoin remains under strain
US equity markets saw a historic relief rally on April 9 after Trump’s tariff pause. However, this “macro relief” did not significantly benefit Bitcoin or its spot exchange traded funds (ETFs), indicating that “institutional confidence remains cautious in the short term,” according to Bitfinex analysts in a note to Cointelegraph.
“Following January’s record inflows, ETF demand has decreased, with several products experiencing net outflows in recent weeks,” the analysts observed. “This reflects the uncertainty among large investors who might be waiting for more favorable entry points or clearer regulatory guidance.”
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of outflows. Source: Farside
Despite Bitcoin’s lackluster performance, Bitfinex suggested that the second quarter through the end of 2025 could be potentially bullish for the asset class as a whole, as “new narratives such as sovereign accumulation and growth in real-world asset tokenization take center stage.”
Joe Burnett, Unchained’s director of market research, echoed this sentiment, asserting that Bitcoin presents more appealing characteristics for long-term investors concerned about government policies and fiat risks affecting their portfolios.
While the S&P 500’s volatility spike is expected to be transitory, Burnett remarked that its recent fluctuations “challenge the long-held belief that traditional markets are safer, less risky, or more stable.”
Related: Weaker yuan is ‘bullish for BTC’ as Chinese capital seeks refuge in crypto — Bybit CEO
