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Thursday, October 6, 2022

Ethereum: Chances Of A Crash 25%, Price Forms Bearish Pattern

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) looks ready to undergo a breakdown move in May as it forms a convincing “bear pennant” structure.

ETH’s price has been consolidating since May 11 inside a range defined by two converging trendlines. Its sideways move coincides with a drop in trading volumes, underscoring the possibility that ETH/USD is painting a bear pennant.

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Bear pennants are bearish continuation patterns, meaning they resolve after the price breaks below the structure’s lower trendline and then falls by as much as the height of the previous move downside (called the flagpole).

As a result of this technical rule, Ether risks closing below its pennant structure, followed by additional moves to the downside.

The height of ETH’s flagpole is around $650. Therefore, if the price undergoes breakdown at the pennant’s apex point near $2,030 then the structure’s bearish target will be below $1,500, down over 25% from the price on May 15.

Sell-Offs And Pullbacks For Ethereum

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Interestingly, the bear pennant’s profit target falls into the area that preceded a 250% price rally in the February-November 2021 session. Also, the target is around Ether’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave), currently near $1,600.

Ideally, the demand zone could prompt Ether traders to accumulate the tokens in anticipation of a sharp upside retracement.

Suppose it happens, then Ethereum’s price interim profit target would likely be the multi-month downward sloping trendline that has served as resistance in a “falling channel” pattern, as shown in the chart below.

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