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Friday, November 27, 2020

Negotiations End With No Sight Of The Stimulus Check Round 2: Deal May Arrive Next Year

Despite weeks of negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House, there seems to be no sign of the stimulus check round 2 deal before the elections. With the Senate adjoining until after elections, a stimulus package won’t be coming in time for November 3, though White House spokeswoman Alyssa Farah commented on “Fox and Friends” that the White House is confident of getting something in the coming weeks. 

However, Deutsche Bank Economist Brett Ryan amongst other economists and analysts, expects that a stimulus package may not come until next year. Ryan estimates that the stimulus check round 2 may arrive by February, and it’ll be as late as March until the stimulus checks and aid will be distributed to American’s bank accounts. 

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An alternative has been suggested by UBS Global Wealth Management senior economist Brian Rose, who argues that the best scenario to pass the stimulus package bill before next year would be if Trump gets reelected and passes the bill during the lame-duck session (the session that occurs following a November election and before a new Congress assembles). 

Rose believes that if the above scenario plays out, then the bill might be a smaller package (piecemeal package) proposed by the White House; a prospect opposed by House Speaker Pelosi. The chances of a speedy piecemeal package are even higher if Biden wins the elections, and the Republicans in the Senate still want a piecemeal deal which puts additional pressure on Pelosi to pass the piecemeal package to control the new Congress and Presidency. 

Rose further states that there is a slim possibility of a bigger package if the Democrats win both the Senate and the presidency, though he argues that he cannot imagine the Democrats sweeping in such fashion. 

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While the Democrats and Republicans have had constant arguments over the number of funds that would be going to state and local governments, they share a common ground in a variety of important factors, such as an additional round of $1,200 stimulus checks, education funding, and food programs. 

Though both groups have pushed support for enhanced unemployment benefits, the amounts differ with the White House favoring a $400 per week package and the Democrats supporting a $600 per week benefit. The biggest hurdle however remains the overall amount of the stimulus check round 2. The Democrats are pushing for a $2.2 trillion in aid, while the Senate Republicans are intent on passing a significantly lower $500 billion package in a bill. It was blocked by the Democrats last week. 

With an unemployment crisis and an economic downturn as possibilities, the bigger question is if the economy can wait until next spring for a much-needed stimulus package in the present.

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